2019 UK Election: Sterling Preview
10 December 2019

Privalgo extend opening hours around UK election to provide a service that really counts

On Thursday the UK go to the polls in what has been one of the most polarising and publicised general elections in our long political history.

A mere 48 hours before the election kicks off, Sterling is trading within reach of a 31-month high against the Euro and a seven-month high against the USD, with these levels expected to hold ahead of the next key poll data out tonight (Tuesday 10.12).

YouGov are to release their final MRP model of the campaign at 22.00, and foreign exchange markets will likely trade the outcome as it is considered a potential guide to Thursday’s result. However, we warn readers that the broad outline of the last MRP model was leaked ahead of 22.00, and the Pound was seen moving in response.

The MRP model takes YouGov’s latest polling statistics and projects them into seats. It is considered to be the most detailed and accurate form of polling currently being – it correctly called the hung parliament result from the 2017 General Election.

However, we know that polls cannot be taken as a certainty as exemplified by Donald Trump’s election win in 2016 and the Brexit vote earlier that year.

We are showing the most extreme examples of what potentially could happen to Sterling, depending on the election outcome later this week. Please note that the figures below are purely speculative and should not to be taken as advice, nor as a guide on how to transact.

Where will the market go?

If there is a Conservative majority (Most Likely) – 1.3250 then there will be an expected increase in the value of Sterling (Pound).

Significant Conservative majority (Likely) – 1.35 then there will be a significant uptake in Sterling.

Hung Parliament (Possible) – 1.24 – some economists say that this is still a possibility. This would lead to a drop in Sterling levels seen months ago during the Brexit uncertainty, as this will likely continue with a hung parliament. 

Labour Majority (‪Unlikely) – 1.20 – This would be the worst outcome for Sterling, plummeting to the lows seen at the height of a no-deal Brexit return.

Possible swings to Sterling – dependent on different election results – can have a sizeable impact on your next trade.

It is important to adequately prepare for each election outcome however much a Conservative majority seems the most likely outcome – the Trump and Brexit results from 2016 are red flags fluttering in this election background.

Privalgo will be working extended hours this week to assist with all of your FX requirements. Today and tomorrow we are here until 21.00 and we will be open continuously from Thursday morning through to Friday close of business. Whatever the outcome, we will ensure that your transactions are safe and successful in what could be a turbulent time for Sterling.

2019 UK Election: Sterling Preview
10 December 2019

Privalgo extend opening hours around UK election to provide a service that really counts

On Thursday the UK go to the polls in what has been one of the most polarising and publicised general elections in our long political history.

A mere 48 hours before the election kicks off, Sterling is trading within reach of a 31-month high against the Euro and a seven-month high against the USD, with these levels expected to hold ahead of the next key poll data out tonight (Tuesday 10.12).

YouGov are to release their final MRP model of the campaign at 22.00, and foreign exchange markets will likely trade the outcome as it is considered a potential guide to Thursday’s result. However, we warn readers that the broad outline of the last MRP model was leaked ahead of 22.00, and the Pound was seen moving in response.

The MRP model takes YouGov’s latest polling statistics and projects them into seats. It is considered to be the most detailed and accurate form of polling currently being – it correctly called the hung parliament result from the 2017 General Election.

However, we know that polls cannot be taken as a certainty as exemplified by Donald Trump’s election win in 2016 and the Brexit vote earlier that year.

We are showing the most extreme examples of what potentially could happen to Sterling, depending on the election outcome later this week. Please note that the figures below are purely speculative and should not to be taken as advice, nor as a guide on how to transact.

Where will the market go?

If there is a Conservative majority (Most Likely) – 1.3250 then there will be an expected increase in the value of Sterling (Pound).

Significant Conservative majority (Likely) – 1.35 then there will be a significant uptake in Sterling.

Hung Parliament (Possible) – 1.24 – some economists say that this is still a possibility. This would lead to a drop in Sterling levels seen months ago during the Brexit uncertainty, as this will likely continue with a hung parliament. 

Labour Majority (‪Unlikely) – 1.20 – This would be the worst outcome for Sterling, plummeting to the lows seen at the height of a no-deal Brexit return.

Possible swings to Sterling – dependent on different election results – can have a sizeable impact on your next trade.

It is important to adequately prepare for each election outcome however much a Conservative majority seems the most likely outcome – the Trump and Brexit results from 2016 are red flags fluttering in this election background.

Privalgo will be working extended hours this week to assist with all of your FX requirements. Today and tomorrow we are here until 21.00 and we will be open continuously from Thursday morning through to Friday close of business. Whatever the outcome, we will ensure that your transactions are safe and successful in what could be a turbulent time for Sterling.

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